Retail Sales Overview

• • The latest US retail sales data for July 2025 indicates modest growth, with total sales increasing by 0.6% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, reaching $720.1 billion. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales remained flat, while excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline, they declined by 0.3% when adjusted for inflation.
  • Notably, non-store retailers, which encompass e-commerce platforms, experienced an 8.0% year-over-year growth, highlighting the ongoing shift towards online shopping. Conversely, food service and drinking places saw a 5.6% increase, reflecting sustained consumer demand for dining experiences.
  • Despite these gains, there are concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending. The National Retail Federation projects a slowdown in retail sales growth for 2025, estimating an increase between 2.7% and 3.7%, down from 3.6% in 2024. Factors contributing to this moderation include potential rises in unemployment, declining income levels, and inflation driven by tariffs.
  • Overall, while July’s retail sales data reflects positive consumer activity, the anticipated challenges in the latter half of 2025 suggest a cautious outlook for the retail sector.

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