Key insights

• Covid-19 recession has been remarkably like past US recessions according to the yield curve and business surveys.
• Yield curve is now steep in contrast to period just prior to recession, suggesting the business cycle is relatively immature and growth assets should outperform defensive assets for an extended period.
• Equity market corrections will occur before this cycle ends, and investors should hold some capital for deployment.
• We should be focused on the length of the growth cycle in front of us and be prepared to ride out periods of volatility.

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