Key insights

• Countries with low vaccination rates and resurging case numbers (Australia, Korea, Indonesia, Japan) are
facing economic pressure as health authorities respond with lockdowns and travel restrictions
• Countries with low vaccination rates and low case numbers (New Zealand and Hong Kong) are still reliant
upon blunt tools to fight the virus such as lockdowns, restrictions on public gatherings and mobility.
• Globalisation has been declining for about 12 years and would have fallen sharply in 2020, though 2020 data
not released until later this year. We expect the trend to continue and not rebound back to pre-pandemic
• Lower levels of globalisation result in inefficient allocation of goods and services, resulting in inefficient
allocation of capital and higher costs.
• Covid-19 is continuing to disrupt supply chains, but further progress in the vaccination rollout will eventually
ease this pressure. Meanwhile, cost pressures will continue to rise and put upward pressure on inflation.

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