Summary
Overall GDP growth forecasts have been revised up to 1.9% in 2025 and to 2.4% in 2026, with 2027 unchanged at 2.6%. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected consumer spending and population growth, but a renewed slowdown in public outlays could dampen household spending and delay private investment recovery.
Australia’s Macro-Micro Probability of Recession indicator shows less than a 20% chance of a downturn, using six economic variables and research from the University of Melbourne and OECD to track GDP, unemployment, and equity trends. Australia’s global GDP share has declined from 2.1% in 2011 to 1.5% today, reflecting weaker relative economic performance and negative impact on AUD/USD.
