Insights

Fed on Hold as Middle East Conflict Redraws the Rate Cut Roadmap   The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the March 2026 FOMC meeting, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision came amid a more complex macro...

US Feb Inflation: Cooling Trend Holds Steady amid Component Volatility   The latest US CPI data for February came in line with expectations, supporting the narrative of a gradual easing in inflation. Headline CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month, bringing the...

War is Loud. Markets, Eventually, are Quiet.   When US and Israeli forces launched joint strikes on Iran at the end of February 2026, three commodity markets told the story instantly. Brent crude surged toward US$119 per barrel at its peak. Gold leapt to US$5,418...

Australia’s 4th Quarter GDP Growth in line with Expectations   Australia’s economy finished 2025 on a strong footing, with GDP rising 0.8% in the December quarter, bringing annual growth to 2.6%—the strongest year-ended performance in several years. While the...

Australia 2026 Outlook: Earnings Re-accelerating but Dividends Lag   Australian equities are heading into 2026 at a pivotal juncture. Dividend outcomes in 2025 fell short of expectations, although corporate earnings proved more resilient than many had...

Despite lower Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty Rises   Following the Supreme Court’s decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) cannot be used to implement tariffs, the Trump administration quickly shifted strategy, turning to Section 122 of...

Hot Inflation Figure in Jan Made another Rate Hike "Inevitable" Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.8% year-on-year to January 2026, unchanged from December but marginally above expectations of 3.7%. More concerning for policymakers, the trimmed mean...

Australian Employment Data in line with Expectations Australia’s labour market began the year on a steady but unspectacular footing. Employment rose by 17,800 in January, broadly in line with market expectations of a 20,000 gain. The result follows volatile readings...

Australian Business Conditions Stalling The latest business survey data points to ongoing challenges for Australian firms as both confidence and conditions remain subdued. Business confidence edged up marginally to +3 in February while conditions held near the...

Overview We are positive on risk assets this year, but investors will likely need to once again absorb volatility and there will be no straight line to good portfolio performance.   We expect global growth to pick up modestly this year due to the impact of lower...

US Services and Manufacturing Sector Resilience The U.S. economy entered 2026 with signs of steady expansion, supported by resilient service-sector activity and a renewed upswing in manufacturing production. January PMI data indicate that both sectors remained in...

Fed Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve has entered a new pause in its easing cycle, holding interest rates steady for the first time since July and signalling little urgency to resume cuts after three contentious reductions last year. The Federal Open Market...

Australia December Inflation Data Supports RBA Hike Higher-than-expected inflation has intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates at its first meeting of 2026, raising the prospect of higher mortgage costs for households and tighter...

Emerging Markets: Bullish Inflection Point Emerging markets, far from being a monolithic bloc, represent a diverse set of economies offering nuanced opportunities as we move into 2026. Recent macro indicators—ranging from real GDP momentum to export trends and capital...

Australian Employment Data Strong Fresh employment data has thrown a spanner in the works for the Reserve Bank that could keep the case for an interest rate hike in the coming months alive. ABS figures released today showed a surprise drop in unemployment, along with...

Q4 & Full-Year 2025 Global Equity Factor Performance Source: Confluence Technologies – January 2026 Market Regime OverviewGlobal equities in 2025 transitioned from concentration-driven leadership toward broader participation as inflation eased and monetary policy...

Venezuela Shock, Not Oil Shock: Why a US Invasion Reprices Risk More Than Barrels Markets treated the U.S. invasion of Venezuela as a geopolitical shock with surprisingly little immediate credibility as a “barrels-off-the-market” event. In the initial trading...

Introduction US employers added just 50,000 jobs in December, well below expectations and capping one of the weakest years for hiring since the global financial crisis, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The result confirms a year-long slowdown...

Introduction In 2025, silver has emerged as the unexpected star of the precious metals market, outperforming gold by a wide margin. While gold traditionally dominates headlines during times of uncertainty, silver’s unique dual role as both a precious and industrial...

Summary India, the world’s fourth-largest economy, has delivered a striking economic performance that defies odds, including the imposition of steep US tariffs. Official data for the July–September 2025 quarter showed GDP expanding 8.2% year-on-year, significantly...

Summary Global financial markets exert a profound influence on Australia’s financial conditions. In her recent speechat the Australian Securitisation Conference, Penelope Smith, Head of the RBA’s International Department,explored how international developments—from...

Summary   Australia’s economic performance in 2024–25 reflected a continuation of modest national growth, with Gross State Product (GSP) rising 1.4%, matching the pace of the previous financial year. Growth was broad-based across all states and territories,...

Summary   The 43-day U.S. government shutdown, the longest in modern American history, created one of the mostsignificant fiscal-liquidity shocks in recent decades. Beyond the political stalemate, the shutdown reshapedmoney-market dynamics, disrupted federal...

RBA Keeps Cash Rate Steady as Inflation Rears its Head   Australia’s Economic Crossroads: Persistent Inflation Pressures Test Monetary Policy Patience The Reserve Bank of Australia finds itself at a critical juncture as it navigates an economic landscape...

Is the Global AI Capex Cycle Sustainable? AI Investment Efficiency and Sustainability After setting record highs, global equity markets have entered a volatile phase as investors debate whether the massive capital flows into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure...

Monetary Policy Board leaves cash rate unchanged amid persistent inflation concerns and resilient economic activity The Decision: Patience and Data-Dependence The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board has decided to hold the cash rate target steady at 3.60...

Summary The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 3.6% during its October 2025 meeting. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a cautious but optimistic outlook, citing signs of recovery in consumption and labour markets. Inflation remains within...

Summary Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race on October 4, 2025, triggered what markets call the “Takaichi Trade.” Investors anticipate bold fiscal expansion and continued monetary easing as she prepares to become Japan’s next...

Background The 2025 U.S. government shutdown represents more than a fiscal impasse; it reflects a profound collapse of trust across America’s political system. Unlike previous shutdowns driven by specific policy disputes, this one is rooted in mutual distrust between...

Is the market or the Fed wrong? An analysis of diverging signals in monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the asset allocation shift towards hard assets.  Market Warning Signals Flash Red  Recent market charts are delivering an unmistakable warning: inflation...