Key Insights
- The USD$2.6 trillion Indian economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2019, placing it amongst the fastest growing economies in the world.
- India’s economic growth is underpinned by structural drivers of private consumption, fixed asset investments and public expenditure and is unlikely to be deterred by the outcomes of the current election.
- BJP and Modi are predicted to win the upcoming election but may not gain the same majority sitting in the Lok Sabha that was achieved in 2014.
- Since Modi’s win in 2014, the Indian economy has increased by USD 1 trillion, the Indian stock market has outperformed the Global emerging market index by a notable margin, and the Indian Rupee appreciated 15% against AUD.
- Longer term outlook for Indian investments remains very positive for patient investors.
Introduction
The Indian economy has transformed into one of the fastest growing on the global stage with private consumption, fixed investments and government consumptions as key pillars for secular growth. The longer-term outlook for these key drivers remains very positive. That said, the trend GDP growth remains susceptible to cyclical headwinds from various economic reforms that have a longer-term payoff, political uncertainty, exogenous shocks and policy mistakes. The outcomes from the upcoming elections will no doubt remove the uncertainty around the political system and likely pathway for fiscal and monetary policies. Notwithstanding this shorter term uncertainty, capital markets have remained positive and buoyant with a wide expectation for Modi government return.
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