Executive Overview:
The April 2026 Foresight FX Analytics Report presents a materially more constructive outlook for the Australian dollar compared to March 2026. The most consequential development is AUD/USD surging from 0.6901 to 0.7201, a 4.3% gain, with the PPP model now the best-fit framework projecting a further 1.93% appreciation by April 2027.
This reflects compounding USD weakness driven by softening US labour market conditions, rising fiscal pressures, and the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward easing, alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia holding the cash rate at 4.10%.
The AUD Trade-Weighted Index shows the currency pushing back toward the upper end of its one-year moving average band, consistent with the improving fundamental backdrop. AUD/CNY is the only other pair projecting positive AUD returns across all horizons, while AUD/INR presents the sharpest long-run headwind among all seven pairs.
Key Highlights
- AUD/USD +4.3% in April 2026 to 0.7201
- Weighted-average basket return turned positive at near term horizon
- Overall basket: +0.19% (1 month), recovering to ~+0.96% by April 2027
- PPP model best-fit for AUD/USD; projects +1.93% by April 2027
- AUD/CNY only other pair with positive AUD returns across all horizons
- AUD/INR sharpest long-run headwind among all pairs
To explore the full paper, download from the link below.
