The April CPI reading the hottest since 2023 confirms that energy shock, sticky services, and a squeeze on real wages are converging into a formidable inflation problem that the Federal Reserve cannot easily extinguish.

A Number Nobody Wanted to See

The April Consumer Price Index landed with a thud on Tuesday, 13 May. The all-items index climbed 3.8% over the prior year the largest 12-month increase since May 2023, and well above the 3.3% pace recorded in March. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.6%. None of it was a surprise in isolation, but the cumulative picture it painted is deeply uncomfortable: inflation is reaccelerating, real wages are falling, and the Federal Reserve has almost no room to maneuvers.