The Tide Has Turned: April’s Jobs Shock Marks a New Chapter for the Australian Labour Market

April’s Labour Force Survey landed with a thud. Employment fell 18,600 defying a market consensus of +15,000 and abruptly halting the modest uptrend that had been forming since the start of the year. The unemployment rate surged 0.2 percentage points to 4.5%, its highest reading since the delta COVID-19 wave struck in late 2021. The employment-to-population ratio retreated 0.2 points to 63.7%, and the three-month average pace of employment growth slipped from 1.6% year-on-year to 1.5%. 

The ten-year perspective in Exhibit 1 puts the April reading in context. After traversing extraordinary terrain from a stubbornly elevated 5.5–6% pre-pandemic, through a COVID spike to 7.4%, then a rapid descent to a 50-year low of 3.4% in late 2022 the unemployment rate has now risen a full percentage point from its trough. At 4.5%, the current level is not alarming in isolation, but the direction of travel is clearly confirmed.