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Is the market or the Fed wrong? An analysis of diverging signals in monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the asset allocation shift towards hard assets.  Market Warning Signals Flash Red  Recent market charts are delivering an unmistakable warning: inflation...

Summary Private equity managers have performed worse than private equity funds However, both have underperformed global equities over the last 20 years And they were highly correlated to equities, offering limited diversification benefits Introduction KKR’s co-founder...

Summary Global central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are steadily increasing gold reserves to diversify away from the US dollar and guard against geopolitical shocks. Notable buyers like China and Poland (+90 tons in 2024) highlight gold’s renewed role as a...

Summary The latest US nonfarm payroll report came in far below expectations, with August job growth at just 22,000. This weaker-than-expected figure has once again drawn market attention to the state of the US economy. With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut now imminent,...

Summary Overall GDP growth forecasts have been revised up to 1.9% in 2025 and to 2.4% in 2026, with 2027 unchanged at 2.6%. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected consumer spending and population growth, but a renewed slowdown in public outlays could dampen...

Summary The Q2 U.S. earnings season delivered one of the strongest performances in recent years, providing powerful fundamental support for equity markets despite ongoing tariff uncertainty. A record 80% of S&P 500 companies beat analyst expectations, the highest...

Summary The great Australian dividend drought is here. Mining heavyweights are cutting payouts to eight-year lows while the ASX 200 soars to records – creating a dangerous disconnect for income investors. BHP’s dividend hit an eight-year low, Rio delivered its...

Summary The latest Australian corporate reporting season has unfolded in parallel with Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ productivity summit, creating a timely backdrop to assess how businesses are tackling productivity challenges. While the summit was held behind closed doors,...

Retail Sales Overview The latest US retail sales data for July 2025 indicates modest growth, with total sales increasing by 0.6% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, reaching $720.1 billion. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales remained flat, while excluding...

Overview If you’re tired of chasing dividend yields in a volatile share market, the latest quarterly review reveals some eye-opening alternatives that are delivering serious returns while you sleep.The standout? Alternative credit funds are smashing it with returns...

Overview ✔️ Geopolitics is disrupting what should have been a positive 2025: The chaos of the Trump administration’s economic policies could soon cause consumers and businesses to delay or cut spending. This uncertainty makes it difficult for investors, with the US...

Overview Geopolitics could disrupt it all in 2025. The US economy is on a solid footing and the downside to growth in other regions is low. Markets moved quickly to price in the good (tax cuts and deregulation) and the bad (tariffs and cuts to immigration). We think...

Key Points: Activist equity strategies offer the purest form of active, alpha-seeking investment management of all the fundamental-based qualitative equities strategies. While in the U.S. market (and increasingly in Europe and Japan), activist strategies have long...

In this paper, we sought to provide three perspectives: 1. Understanding different types of hedge fund sub-strategies.  2. The case for specific hedge fund sub-strategy, particularly in the context of generally high exposure to long-only equities and duration bonds,...

Overview The US labour market is where the rubber meets the road and it has once again passed the test. We were concerned that the US was slowing towards a recession before the release of September non-farm payrolls.  But once again the labour market showed its...

Key Points: During the past few weeks, some large cracks have begun to open in the US economic fortress. We have seen this several times during the past couple of years, but this time warrants some risk management. Recession indicators remain mixed. But pandemic era...

Key Points: SME lending – Supply and demand imbalance causing funding gap for non-bank lenders ▪ Australian banks have largely retreated from all types of lending bar residential mortgages due, in large part, to Basel III and risk-weighted asset impositions, leading...

Overview: The game has changed for both the Fed and the RBA. After 18 months of slowing inflation and low unemployment, the disinflation process has stalled. Easing for both central banks is off the agenda for now, but so too is a return to tightening. This creates a...

Overview: When consumers pay the bills, some bills will reliably get paid first while others last. In consumer lending, this is called the household payment priority waterfall. Where obligations sit in the payment priority waterfall can make a material difference in...

Introduction Over the last decade, and particularly the last 5 years, there has been a proliferation of private debt strategies issued by fund managers in Australia. The segment has evolved into a distinct asset class, with private debt fund managers now offering...

Overview Financial markets want it all this year – a soft landing, aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, and inflation tracking back to target. Aggressive rate cuts, particularly in H2 are more likely than a soft landing.  The Fed will soon have room to cut rates, but...

Key Points: A global recession remains our base case next year. The world’s major central banks feel they have tightened enough for now, while the RBA still has unfinished business. There is plenty of tightening in the pipeline to slow growth next year to a point...

Overview The decline in inflation at record low unemployment rates is welcome news, but there is uncertainty about how much further it will fall.  This will keep rates higher for longer and ensure full pass-through of the work done thus far.   A US recession is only...